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Movement in the Mideast

There is something in the air in the Middle East, and it's not just the smell of gunpowder.

The slightest rumblings of democratic reform and peace are being heard in places that have known only autocratic rule and violence. Of course, it never pays to be too optimistic about the Middle East. Hopes for peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and self-determination and political reform for the rest of the region have flickered before only to be snuffed out by another outbreak of madness. But there are encouraging signs that the ground could be shifting in the Middle East, and that the talk in the Arab Street is turning from hating America to hating the repression and poverty of their own lives.

In addition to the millions of Iraqi citizens who voted in free elections for the first time in their lives, there has been a remarkable turn of events in Lebanon, where a Syrian-backed government resigned in response to public demonstrations. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak, who has kept himself in power since 1981 by crushing political opposition, promised democratic elections this year. Even the latest efforts of the Palestinians and Israelis to live side-by-side and give peace a chance have been given a new shot of adrenaline, with the successful election of the moderate Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.

The death of Yasser Arafat in November had a profound effect on the chemistry of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Abbas appears to be sincerely opposed to violent resistence, and his popular election has given him the credibility and the authority to challenge the entrenched terrorism apparatus. Abbas' view of Israel as a negotiating partner rather than a nation to be destroyed has given better footing to more reasonable Arab voices in the entire region.

Undoubtedly, the forceable removal of Saddam Hussein by U.S. forces and the subsequent Iraqi elections have also been part of the catalyst for change. There is no way to know whether the Sunni insurgency will ultimately overwhelm any positive outcome, but for now, there is a freely elected government where before there was a brutal dictator.

Perhaps most encouraging are the events in Lebanon, where a mass movement styled on the citizen protests in Ukraine has led to the resignation of Syrian-backed Prime Minister Omar Karami and a cryptic promise from Syria to withdraw its troops from the country. In the Arab world, where civic movements for political change are harshly suppressed, this was a rare victory.

Even in closed, undemocratic Saudi Arabia, there have been baby steps. Nationwide voting is taking place, albeit by men only and only for seats on small local councils. Still, it is more democracy than the nation has experienced before.

These developments could be the beginning of an upheaval that could alter the political landscape in the Middle East, for better or worse. Change is risky, however, and the United States will have to be prepared for outcomes that it may not like. President Bush may see democracy take root in the region - one of the pillars of his foreign policy - but there are no guarantees that new Arab democracies under Islamic leadership will be less hostile to America or Israel.

Florida's constitutions have always imposed a residency requirement on candidates for governor. It was reduced to three years after the Civil War, returned to five after Reconstruction, and raised to seven in 1968. An editorial Wednesday misstated the origin.

[Last modified March 4, 2005, 00:30:22]