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The only thing we have to fear

In his effort to revamp Social Security, Bush will tap into this truth: Fear is a great motivator.

By ANITA KUMAR
Published March 5, 2005

"We know that social control is best managed through fear. . . . This is the way modern society works - by the constant creation of fear." - from Michael Crichton's bestselling novel State of Fear

WASHINGTON - Fear works.

People show up for work every day because they're afraid of being fired. They don't cheat on their taxes because they're frightened of an audit. They exercise because they're afraid of having a heart attack.

For politicians of every stripe, it's a time-honored tradition to play on fear.

Now President Bush is using that all-powerful motivator as a key element of his sales pitch to revamp Social Security.

Rather than stress the prospect of a more prosperous retirement if workers divert Social Security taxes to investment accounts, he warns of doom if they do not.

Though it's not until after 2042 that the program will not pay full benefits, Bush warns of the "crisis" the nation risks if we don't act today. Younger workers will be out of luck because Social Security will be "flat bust" or "bankrupt."

Those who specialize in how fear is used as a tool of persuasion say the president walks a fine line. He needs to convince Americans that there is a problem so that he can sell a solution, but if he takes it too far, the public will tune out.

In the race for president in 1800, Thomas Jefferson's opponents warned that his election would lead to the teaching of "murder, robbery, rape, adultery and incest."

The danger of electing the other guy has been a constant theme of campaigns. In 1964, to suggest that Barry Goldwater would lead the nation into war, Lyndon Johnson ran a TV ad showing a little girl counting daisy petals, giving way to a nuclear blast countdown.

The first President Bush campaigned against Michael Dukakis with an ad that showed a black inmate named Willie Horton, who had terrorized a young couple while free on a weekend pass.

Fear dominated last November's election. George W. Bush said John Kerry would make a weak commander in chief and leave the country vulnerable to terrorists. Kerry said Bush would reinstate the draft and cut Social Security benefits by up to 45 percent.

Beyond elections, fear sells social change.

"I don't know of a big issue in Washington not debated that way," said Mike Tanner, a Social Security expert at the Cato Institute, which supports Bush's plan. "I think that doing good things has never been a political motivating factor." Fear is.

Opponents of tax cuts argued that poor people would lose health care and children would lose financial aid. Supporters of prescription drug reform said seniors were having to choose between pricey heart medicine and rent. Opponents of President Clinton's health overhaul argued that there would be astronomical hidden costs.

"The same thing happened in welfare reform: We were going to throw all the old ladies and the kids out on the street, and there would be no school lunch," said Rep. Sue Myrick, R-N.C., past chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. "None of that happened."

Bush sold the war in Iraq with warnings about weapons of mass destruction, and he sold the Patriot Act amid fear about terrorism.

"Washington doesn't usually act until there is a crisis," said Stephen K. Moore, president of the conservative Free Enterprise Fund, which supports establishing personal Social Security accounts. "Most big things that happen in America are because people think there is a crisis. In American politics, the default system is always to do nothing."

A decision to use fear is made after extensive research to show which strategy will work, with what audience.

"Human beings are wired to respond to fear," said Mary Ann Ferguson, a public relations professor at the University of Florida. "We have evolved that way. Those who respond to fear are much more likely to evolve."

Bush announced plans this week to ramp up his campaign to convince Americans that Social Security must change. He launched a 60-city, 60-day nationwide blitz that will take him to seven cities next week. At each stop, he will turn to fear.

"Many times, legislative bodies will not react unless the crisis is apparent, crisis is upon them," Bush said of Social Security in December. "And so for a period of time, we're going to have to explain to members of Congress that crisis is here."

Democrats are countering with their own message of fear. They say that the costs of creating accounts will balloon the deficit and that future retirees will lose guaranteed benefits and possibly spend their golden years in poverty.

Arie Kruglanski, a psychology professor at the University of Maryland in College Park, said the president will have a far more difficult time selling Social Security than he did selling the Iraq war and the Patriot Act.

After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, people believed that the United States needed to make changes to be safer. But on Social Security, Americans need to be convinced that the existing way of doing things isn't going to work.

"Right now, there is no crisis," said Kruglanski, one of four researchers in 2003 who culled through 50 years of research literature about the psychology of conservatism. "It's theoretical. It's abstract."

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Bush is not exaggerating the Social Security problem, but rather trying to educate people about what they need to know. "We can debate whether it's a crisis or not a crisis," McClellan said, "but you can't ignore the fact that it is a serious problem that we face and that it only gets worse over time."

Experts in the art of persuasion say a threat needs to be genuine; if it's not, resentment can follow. That happened after no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq.

Fear works best when a politician defines the problem and quickly offers a solution.

Recent polls show that more people understand the problem with Social Security but are not buying the solution.

"Bush has done a good job of selling the problem," said Pew Research Center president Andrew Kohut, after the number of people who support investment accounts dropped. "He hasn't done such a good job of selling a solution."

Robert Cialdini, a psychology professor at Arizona State University and author of the book Influence: Science and Practice, said fear is effective, provided people aren't so scared that they tune out. He said the government campaign to persuade Americans to get tested for HIV failed because people were so frightened that the message was lost.

"People don't ever remember the message," he said. "There is so much fear that they shut it off and don't process it."

Bush has toned down his language about Social Security after being questioned about using the word "crisis." He rarely, if ever, says that anymore. Now he calls it a "significant problem."

Still something to fear.

Times researcher Kitty Bennett contributed to this report. Anita Kumar can be reached at kumar@sptimes.com or 202-463-0576.

[Last modified March 5, 2005, 00:42:15]